RJ Reynolds reports 8.6% cigarette volume decline in 4Q13 and 6.8% decline in 2013 (largely due to surging e-cig sales)

[Bill Godshall]

RJ Reynolds reports 8.6% cigarette volume decline in 4Q13 and 6.8% decline in 2013 (largely due to surging e-cig sales);
American Snuff reports 8.2% smokeless tobacco volume increase in 4Q13 and 6.5% increase in 2013.
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...owth_as_key_brands_gain_market_share_4Q13.pdf

Last week, Altria reported a 5.8% cigarette volume decline in 4Q13 and 4.1% decline in 2013 (largely due to surging e-cig sales); 8.5% cigar volume increase in 4Q13 (but a 3.2% decline in 2013); and a 4.3% smokeless tobacco volume decline in 4Q13 (but a 3.2% increase in 2013).
Altria - Investors - Press Release=

Reynolds also reported that total US cigarette industry volume was down 6.2 percent in 4Q13, and down 4.6 percent for 2013, and that total smokeless tobacco volume increased by about 5% in 4Q13.

Except for the $.61/pack federal cigarette excise tax hike in 2009, I think this is the largest decline in cigarette volume in US history (thanks to e-cigs).

While the spotlight is now justifiably shining on e-cigs, many cigarette smokers (mostly white rural males) continue to switch to far less hazardous smokeless tobacco.

 

[2coils]

All of the ANTI's will be taking credit for the decreased cig sales, claiming, their efforts to demoralize smokers via tobacco control is working!

 

[Bill Godshall]

Amazingly, the ANTZ don't even monitor cigarette sales, and don't consider cigarette sales data as "evidence" of anything.

 

[2coils]

Amazingly, the ANTZ don't even monitor cigarette sales, and don't consider cigarette sales data as "evidence" of anything.

Well that's good to know, as they have thrown everything at us including the kitchen sink!

 

[rolygate]

It would be nice if someone had the capability to produce a graph of US cigarette sales vs ecig sales for the last 5 years.

Is the increase in ST sales volume a normal market effect seen yearly, or is there a 'THR effect' possibly caused by ecigs?

 

[Bill Godshall]

The 2013 cigarette sales data won't be available for another month or so, but I agree that a graph showing plummeting cigarette sales along with skyrocketing e-cig sales is a very important educational tool.

Regarding smokeless tobacco, during the past 15 years smokeless tobacco volumes have consistently increased by an average of 6%-7% annually, and overall smokeless tobacco volume has increased by about 60% during the past 15 years.

It appears that about half of the increase in smokeless tobacco volume/consumption is due to smokers switching to (or substituting) smokeless, while the other half of the increase is due to nonsmokers beginning to use smokeless.

In contrast, about 99% of all e-cig consumption is due to smokers switching.

After surpassing NRT sales in 2013, e-cigs are likely to surpass smokeless tobacco sales this year.

 

[Uma]

The 2013 cigarette sales data won't be available for another month or so, but I agree that a graph showing plummeting cigarette sales along with skyrocketing e-cig sales is a very important educational tool.

Regarding smokeless tobacco, during the past 15 years smokeless tobacco volumes have consistently increased by an average of 6%-7% annually, and overall smokeless tobacco volume has increased by about 60% during the past 15 years.

It appears that about half of the increase in smokeless tobacco volume/consumption is due to smokers switching to (or substituting) smokeless, while the other half of the increase is due to nonsmokers beginning to use smokeless.

In contrast, about 99% of all e-cig consumption is due to smokers switching.

After surpassing NRT sales in 2013, e-cigs are likely to surpass smokeless tobacco sales this year.

I ran across this one on FB yesterday, don't know how accurate it is or who drew it, but someone might know & respond.